Once Again I read the newspaper and I am astounded by the cluelessness of our economic leadership. Today there is talk that the Fed will again lower the interest rate at which banks lend to each other (The Federal Funds Rate). You would think that by now Mr. Bernanke would realize that the country is in a liquidity trap where the traditional tools of Monetary Policy are ineffective. This is evidenced by the fact that both Mr. Bernanke and Mr. Paulson have been pouring liquidity intro the systems and the banks have responded by buying other banks, paying dividends, and funding bonus pools instead of making loans with the new found liquidity. Attacking an economic crisis with monetary tools when the country is in a liquidity trap is akin to tilting at windmills in the hope of killing a dragon.
The time has come to start using Keynesian aggregate demand based economics instead of the pump priming of liquidity enhancement. The pump is primed; the liquidity is there. What we need now is someone to start demanding the water. This can only be accomplished by a government spending stimulus package that is large enough to turn the economy around. This means that we need to spend as if we were fighting a war. All of the criticisms of the New Deal boil down to the fact that even FDR was too timid in his spending proposals. Alan Greenspan set the precedent of a Fed chief commenting on Fiscal Policy. It is now Mr. Bernanke’s turn to push Paulson toward a fiscal stimulus. At a minimum this should be a set of loans to GM and Chrysler that would stave off a shrinkage in demand. These two firms will eventually have to file for bankruptcy, but the inevitable can be delayed until the economy is better able to manage it and congress has time to arrange a post filing financing package which will mitigate the worst effects of a filing.
No comments:
Post a Comment